Key Takeaways
- An account bought 171,703 Cardinals shares at 1.4 cents with Arizona down 27–17 and 3:54 left.
- Arizona won 33–30 in overtime, and the account ended about $118,500 ahead on the moneyline.
A 1.4-Cent Bet With 3:54 Left
A Polymarket account trading as CutJalenHurts bought 171,703 Cardinals shares at 1.4 cents apiece on Sunday, about a minute after Dallas kicker Brandon Aubrey made a 35-yard field goal that put the Cowboys up 27–17 with 3:54 left. The order cost about $2,475.
Arizona came back to win 33–30 in overtime, and the account ended about $118,500 ahead across all its trades on Polymarket’s Cardinals–Cowboys moneyline.
The price matched the market: Polymarket’s moneyline traded at about 1.5 cents in the minutes after the field goal, and Kalshi’s Cardinals contract traded as low as 1 cent, implying odds of 1% to 2%. Gardner Minshew II then hit Trey McBride for a 14-yard touchdown with 2:11 left, but Dallas recovered the onside kick, and Aubrey added a 41-yard field goal for a 30–24 lead with 1:09 to go. Minshew drove Arizona 80 yards and found Michael Wilson for a 13-yard touchdown with six seconds left. Chad Ryland missed the extra point, sending the game to overtime, then made a 42-yard field goal to win it.
The account started the day on the other side, having bought about 51,000 Cowboys shares at 76 to 77 cents just after kickoff, then added the Cardinals at 1.4 cents and 4,616 more Cardinals shares at about 13 cents after Aubrey’s second field goal. Once the game was tied, the user bought about 24,000 more Cowboys shares at 57 to 70 cents. During overtime, it merged 74,948 matched Cardinals–Cowboys pairs back into $74,948 in cash, locking in a profit of roughly $17,000 whichever team won. Its remaining Cardinals shares paid $101,370, one dollar each.
In total, the account put about $57,800 into the moneyline and took out about $176,300. Its Polymarket profile shows a $135,754 gain on the Cardinals position and a $17,219 loss on the Cowboys, because Polymarket splits the merge proceeds between the two sides. The two net to the same $118,500.
The Cardinals also paid off for BreakTheBank, one of Polymarket’s biggest sports traders, which made about $215,000 on Arizona across moneyline and spread bets, buying its moneyline shares at an average of 24 cents. Across Sunday’s NFL games, its settled positions show about $1.82 million in gains—led by $826,000 on the Washington Commanders’ 27–10 Sunday night win over the Philadelphia Eagles and $493,000 on the Las Vegas Raiders—against about $1.2 million in losses including fees, mostly on the Kansas City Chiefs and the Cleveland Browns. That leaves the account roughly $625,000 ahead on the day’s NFL bets.
Late swings cut both ways. Last month, another Polymarket account was eight seconds from a $623,449 payout before a 57-yard field goal as time expired wiped out its $147,000 Eagles bet.
