Key Takeaways:
- Grayscale signaled bitcoin may have bottomed as buyers return to breakeven levels.
- Markets show cost basis alignment, reinforcing a more stable bitcoin structure.
- Grayscale’s head of research says further gains could confirm early stages of a new bull cycle.
Bitcoin Breakeven Levels Point to Stronger Positioning
Digital asset manager Grayscale signaled a potential turning point in bitcoin markets on April 21, citing on-chain data that may indicate a durable bottom. The firm pointed to strengthening price performance and improved investor positioning as early signs of a shift toward bullish conditions.
Grayscale Research stated on social media platform X:
“Grayscale Research believes BTC’s blockchain data could signal a durable market bottom has occurred.”
The firm added: “$ BTC has rallied nearly 20% since February 5th. Recent buyers are back at breakeven around ~$74K.” These remarks align with market behavior as bitcoin recovered from earlier weakness and approached the average cost basis of recent participants, reducing unrealized losses and easing potential sell pressure.
On April 21, bitcoin traded at $75,577, remaining near the upper boundary of a recent recovery range after rebounding from a sharp early-February decline. The price stabilized following a steep selloff that briefly pushed BTC into the lower $60,000s. Recent candlesticks indicate modest consolidation just below resistance near $78,000. The broader short-term structure suggests strengthening resilience, with buyers consistently defending higher lows. Since then, BTC has advanced to $78,772 as of this writing.
Glassnode Data Supports Durable Market Bottom Case
Chart data shared by Grayscale Head of Research Zach Pandl showed bitcoin declining to roughly $63,000 in early February before rebounding to around $76,000 by April. The realized price for coins transferred within one to three months followed a different path, rising through much of 2025, peaking above $110,000 around late 2025, then trending downward into 2026 toward approximately $74,000. This downward adjustment in realized price, alongside recovering spot levels, brought the two metrics into alignment. The convergence indicates that recent buyers have returned to breakeven, a condition often associated with stabilizing market behavior and reduced forced selling.
The Grayscale head of research explained:
“If bitcoin’s price rises further in the coming days, more recent buyers would move into positive PnL, which can be an indicator for marking the first phase of a bull market.”
“ Bitcoin’s price is still well below its October highs, but many recent buyers are back to breakeven—potentially signaling that bitcoin has put in a durable market bottom in the $65,000 to $70,000 range,” he added. These observations underscore how on-chain cost basis metrics can help identify transitions in market cycles while supporting a constructive outlook.
