Key Takeaways
- Hayes compares 2026 AI fears with three earlier periods of disruption.
- His separate AI-bust thesis anticipates multitrillion-dollar support.
- His earlier bitcoin outlook centers on expanded Treasury buybacks.
Hayes Sees Bull-Run Potential Beyond AI Fears
AI encryption fears are the latest “wall of worry” crypto must climb at the beginning of a mega bull run, Arthur Hayes argues. The chief investment officer of Maelstrom, a crypto investment firm, outlined his bull-market argument on X on Oct. 8. He co-founded Bitmex, a cryptocurrency derivatives exchange.
Hayes compared today’s AI anxiety with Bitcoin’s block-size disputes, the pandemic, and the aftermath of FTX’s collapse amid rising interest rates. The 2017 disagreement concerned how much transaction data Bitcoin blocks should hold. He described this year’s anxiety as FUD, the industry abbreviation for fear, uncertainty, and doubt.
The forecast builds on his earlier argument that government efforts to manage borrowing costs can support digital assets. In an Aug. 24 essay, Hayes contended that expanding dollar liquidity could flow into bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. His framework emphasizes financial conditions as a driver of investment demand.
Money Printing Could Fuel Crypto’s Next Rally
Greater availability of money and credit underpins Hayes’ expectation that policy responses to financial pressure could lift prices. Global liquidity describes those conditions across the financial system. In his scenario, capital released through government intervention could reach speculative investments, including cryptocurrencies.
In the Aug. 24 essay, Hayes connected that reasoning with the U.S. Treasury’s expanded bond repurchases, arguing that Treasury buybacks supported a new bitcoin bull market. These debt-management operations purchase outstanding government securities. He viewed their effects on yields as favorable to risk assets while distinguishing them from Federal Reserve asset purchases.
His AI-bust scenario anticipates a larger intervention if heavily financed infrastructure encounters financial stress. In an interview published Oct. 2, Hayes projected that an AI bust could trigger multitrillion-dollar support, potentially benefiting crypto through money creation. He placed the prospective reckoning around 2027 or 2028 as data-center commitments come due.
Hayes closed his Oct. 8 post with a bullish prediction linking money creation to higher crypto prices: “Money shall be printed, bags shall pump.”
AI Security Fears Face Expert Pushback
The security concerns Hayes labeled FUD have also drawn objections from specialists examining the underlying mathematical claims. Yehuda Lindell, head of cryptography at crypto exchange Coinbase (Nasdaq: COIN), disputed an imminent AI breakthrough, arguing there was no evidence of a break in established cryptographic assumptions. His objection addresses the technical premise behind the anxiety Hayes incorporated into his bullish analogy.
Separately, AI-assisted security work has demonstrated how automated analysis can uncover weaknesses in existing crypto software. A researcher examining Zcash identified a flaw in its shielded transaction system, illustrating the role of AI-assisted vulnerability discovery in reviewing older code. That involved a software defect rather than defeating the mathematical protections underlying digital signatures. Developers patched the vulnerability within days of its discovery.
